Climate Impacts of 5 Tg Black Carbon Injections In the Published Literature


Existing simulations:

Robock et al. (2007): Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts.
Mills et al. (2008): Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nulear conflict.
Stenke et al. (2013): Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict.
Mills et al. (2014): Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict.
Pausata et al. (2016): Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition.
Reisner et al. (2018): Climate impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment based on detailed source calculations.
Toon et al. (2019): Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe.


Papers justifying amount of smoke emissions for use in climate models:
Toon et al. (2007): Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism.
Toon et al. (2019): Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe.


5 Tg Simulations Published To Date

Publication

Model

Date of Injection

Coagulation of Aerosols?

Robock et al. (2007)

GISS ModelE

May 15th (one day)

No

Mills et al. (2008)

WACCM3-CARMA

May 15th (one day)

No

Stenke et al. (2013)

SOCOL3

May 15th (one day)

No

Mills et al. (2014)

CESM-WACCM4-POP2

May 15th (one day)

No

Pausata et al. (2016)

NorESM1-M-CAM4-Oslo-MICOMA

January 1st (1 day, 1 week, 1 month)

Yes / OC included

Reisner et al. (2018)

CESM-WACCM4-CARMA

May 15th (one week)

No

Toon et al. (2019)

CESM-WACCM4-CARMA

May 15th (one week)

Yes


Climate impacts of all climate model simulations where 5 Tg of black carbon is injected into the upper troposphere over India/Pakistan, as to simulate nuclear war between the two countries. Climate variables reported:


Global mean surface temperature reported in paper: Robock et al. (2007), Stenke et al. (2013), Mills et al. (2014), Pausata et al. (2016), Resiner et al. (2018).
Stenke et al. (2013) performed a number of experiments.
Prescribed = 4D soot distribution from WACCM3 by Mills et al. (2008) (0.1 micron)

Exp5_100 = 5 Tg of black carbon with a radius of 100 nanometers (0.1 micron)

Exp5_200 = 5 Tg of black carbon with a radius of 200 nanometers (0.2 micron)