Climate Impacts of 5 Tg Black Carbon Injections In the Published Literature
Existing simulations:
Robock
et al. (2007): Climatic
consequences of regional nuclear conflicts.
Mills et al.
(2008): Massive
global ozone loss predicted following regional nulear
conflict.
Stenke et al. (2013): Climate
and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict.
Mills
et al. (2014): Multidecadal
global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional
nuclear conflict.
Pausata et al. (2016): Climate
effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to
emission duration and particle composition.
Reisner et al.
(2018): Climate
impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment
based on detailed source calculations.
Toon et al. (2019):
Rapidly
expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and
global catastrophe.
Papers
justifying amount of smoke emissions for use in climate models:
Toon
et al. (2007): Atmospheric
effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts
and acts of individual nuclear terrorism.
Toon et al.
(2019): Rapidly
expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and
global catastrophe.
5 Tg Simulations Published To Date
Publication |
Model |
Date of Injection |
Coagulation of Aerosols? |
Robock et al. (2007) |
GISS ModelE |
May 15th (one day) |
No |
Mills et al. (2008) |
WACCM3-CARMA |
May 15th (one day) |
No |
Stenke et al. (2013) |
SOCOL3 |
May 15th (one day) |
No |
Mills et al. (2014) |
CESM-WACCM4-POP2 |
May 15th (one day) |
No |
Pausata et al. (2016) |
NorESM1-M-CAM4-Oslo-MICOMA |
January 1st (1 day, 1 week, 1 month) |
Yes / OC included |
Reisner et al. (2018) |
CESM-WACCM4-CARMA |
May 15th (one week) |
No |
Toon et al. (2019) |
CESM-WACCM4-CARMA |
May 15th (one week) |
Yes |
Climate impacts of all climate model simulations where 5 Tg of black carbon is injected into the upper troposphere over India/Pakistan, as to simulate nuclear war between the two countries. Climate variables reported:
Global
mean surface temperature reported in paper: Robock et al. (2007),
Stenke et al. (2013), Mills et al. (2014), Pausata et al. (2016),
Resiner et al. (2018).
Stenke et al. (2013) performed a number
of experiments.
Prescribed = 4D soot distribution from WACCM3
by Mills et al. (2008) (0.1 micron)
Exp5_100 = 5 Tg of black carbon with a radius of 100 nanometers (0.1 micron)
Exp5_200 = 5 Tg of black carbon with a radius of 200 nanometers (0.2 micron)