Objective: Determine how initial conditions influence the evolution of ENSO in the 5 Tg India-Pakistan nuclear war scenarios. Python code.

Issue: A moderate El Nino develops in the following year during the control run (nw_cntrl_03) used for the initial conditions of the following nuclear war simulations. Additionally, in the majority of nuclear runs, there is anomalously westerly winds in the Western Pacific during 0005-02 through 0005-04 before the soot injection, that could be seen as possibly kickstarting an El Nino. How do we prove that an El Nino would not have occurred naturally?

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| nw_cntrl_03 = 0 Tg, control case
| nw_targets_01 = 5 Tg India-Pakistan case
| nw_targets_04 = 16 Tg India-Pakistan case
| nw_targets_02 = 27.3 Tg India-Pakistan case
| nw_targets_03 = 37 Tg India-Pakistan case
| nw_targets_05 = 46.8 Tg India-Pakistan case
| nw_ur_150_07 = 150 Tg US-Russia case
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We're certain that the injection amplifies the El Nino, but with the Pacific Ocean primed for an El Nino, it makes it seems like we've pre-determined this. However, for all soot injections greater than 5 Tg, this can easily be argued against, as the El Nino that develops is stronger than any on record during the control run. Therefore, we must examine the 5 Tg case by looking at three different ensembles with three different ENSO conditions at the beginning.
UPDATE: The nuclear war runs are slightly different than the control run for the first 4 months. As long as the El Nino forcing isn't present in the nuclear war runs for the first 4 months, we are in the clear.

Average of three 5 Tg India-Pakistan ensembles (nw_targets_01, nw_targets_01m02, nw_targets01_m03)





Ensemble 1 (nw_cntrl_03): La Nina Conditions to start, El Nino develops during the Spring of the next year.

Ensemble 1 (nw_targets_01): 5 Tg black carbon injection over India and Pakistan precedes development of strong El Nino from the Fall of Year 0 (0005-10) to May of Year 2 (0007-05).

Ensemble 2 (nw_cntrl_03m02): El Nino conditions to start.

Ensemble 2 (nw_targets_01m02: Starts with El Nino conditions, El Nino lasts through to June of Year 1 (0006-06). Fluctuations between El Nino and La Nina indicate an increase in periodicity.




Ensemble 3 (nw_cntrl_03m03): Moderate La Nina conditions to start.

Ensemble 3 (nw_targets_01m03): Transitioning from La Nina to El Nino at the start of the soot injection, leads to an El Nino through July of Year 1 (0006-07) followed by mostly neutral conditions until fall of year 4 (0009-08).