TY  - JOUR
T1  - Solar radiation management impacts on agriculture in China: A case study in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
AU  - Xia, Lili
AU  - Robock, Alan
AU  - Cole, Jason
AU  - Curry, Charles L.
AU  - Ji, Duoying
AU  - Jones, Andy
AU  - Kravitz, Ben
AU  - Moore, John C.
AU  - Muri, Helene
AU  - Niemeier, Ulrike
AU  - Singh, Balwinder
AU  - Tilmes, Simone
AU  - Watanabe, Shingo
AU  - Yoon, Jin-Ho
Y1  - 2014/07/27
PY  - 2014
DA  - 2014/07/27
N1  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020630
DO  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020630
T2  - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JF  - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JO  - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JA  - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
SP  - 8695
EP  - 8711
VL  - 119
IS  - 14
KW  - GeoMIP
KW  - G2
KW  - rice production
KW  - maize production
KW  - DSSAT
KW  - geoengineering
PB  - John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
SN  - 2169-897X
M3  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020630
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020630
Y2  - 2020/11/16
N2  - Abstract Geoengineering via solar radiation management could affect agricultural productivity due to changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. To study rice and maize production changes in China, we used results from 10 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G2 scenario to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. G2 prescribes an insolation reduction to balance a 1% a?1 increase in CO2 concentration (1pctCO2) for 50 years. We first evaluated the DSSAT model using 30 years (1978?2007) of daily observed weather records and agriculture practices for 25 major agriculture provinces in China and compared the results to observations of yield. We then created three sets of climate forcing for 42 locations in China for DSSAT from each climate model experiment: (1) 1pctCO2, (2) G2, and (3) G2 with constant CO2 concentration (409 ppm) and compared the resulting agricultural responses. In the DSSAT simulations: (1) Without changing management practices, the combined effect of simulated climate changes due to geoengineering and CO2 fertilization during the last 15 years of solar reduction would change rice production in China by ?3.0 ± 4.0 megaton (Mt) (2.4 ± 4.0%) as compared with 1pctCO2 and increase Chinese maize production by 18.1 ± 6.0 Mt (13.9 ± 5.9%). (2) The termination of geoengineering shows negligible impacts on rice production but a 19.6 Mt (11.9%) reduction of maize production as compared to the last 15 years of geoengineering. (3) The CO2 fertilization effect compensates for the deleterious impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation due to geoengineering on rice production, increasing rice production by 8.6 Mt. The elevated CO2 concentration enhances maize production in G2, contributing 7.7 Mt (42.4%) to the total increase. Using the DSSAT crop model, virtually all of the climate models agree on the sign of the responses, even though the spread across models is large. This suggests that solar radiation management would have little impact on rice production in China but could increase maize production.
ER  -