TY  - JOUR
T1  - Decadal reduction of Chinese agriculture after a regional nuclear war
AU  - Xia, Lili
AU  - Robock, Alan
AU  - Mills, Michael
AU  - Stenke, Andrea
AU  - Helfand, Ira
Y1  - 2015/02/01
PY  - 2015
DA  - 2015/02/01
N1  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000283
DO  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000283
T2  - Earth's Future
JF  - Earth's Future
JO  - Earth's Future
JA  - Earth's Future
SP  - 37
EP  - 48
VL  - 3
IS  - 2
KW  - regional nuclear war
KW  - nuclear winter
KW  - agriculture impacts
KW  - China
KW  - DSSAT
KW  - famine
PB  - John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
SN  - 2328-4277
M3  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000283
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000283
Y2  - 2020/11/16
N2  - Abstract A regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan could decrease global surface temperature by 1°C?2°C for 5?10 years and have major impacts on precipitation and solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Using a crop simulation model forced by three global climate model simulations, we investigate the impacts on agricultural production in China, the largest grain producer in the world. In the first year after the regional nuclear war, a cooler, drier, and darker environment would reduce annual rice production by 30 megaton (Mt) (29%), maize production by 36 Mt (20%), and wheat production by 23 Mt (53%). With different agriculture management?no irrigation, auto irrigation, 200 kg/ha nitrogen fertilizer, and 10 days delayed planting date?simulated national crop production reduces 16%?26% for rice, 9%?20% for maize, and 32%?43% for wheat during 5 years after the nuclear war event. This reduction of food availability would continue, with gradually decreasing amplitude, for more than a decade. Assuming these impacts are indicative of those in other major grain producers, a nuclear war using much less than 1% of the current global arsenal could produce a global food crisis and put a billion people at risk of famine.
ER  -