TY  - JOUR
T1  - Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe
JF  - Science Advances
JO  - Sci Adv
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aay5478
VL  - 5
IS  - 10
SP  - eaay5478
AU  - Toon, Owen B.
AU  - Bardeen, Charles G.
AU  - Robock, Alan
AU  - Xia, Lili
AU  - Kristensen, Hans
AU  - McKinzie, Matthew
AU  - Peterson, R. J.
AU  - Harrison, Cheryl S.
AU  - Lovenduski, Nicole S.
AU  - Turco, Richard P.
Y1  - 2019/10/01
UR  - http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/10/eaay5478.abstract
N2  - Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.
ER  -